Baltimore -2.5
over @N.Y.Giants
WIN, Bal 34 - NYG 7
Pre-Game Commentary: A lot has been made of the Ravens lack of offense, but I think a lot of that is blown out of proportion.  The Ravens ranked 5th in the NFL rushing OFFENSIVELY.  They didn't have to throw the ball, the Ravens are all about ball control and, obviously, defense.  Teams with that formula aren't going to have terribly impressive offensive numbers.  If your team is built around your defense, as long as they have a good running game - they do - and a passing game that is competent - they do - they are going to be effective.  No, Trent Dilfer isn't great, but he's good for this team and this offense.  The fact is, they don't ask him make big plays because he doesn't have to - and that keeps him from making big mistakes ... This isn't any revelation, but don't expect a repeat of the performance by the Giants wide-receivers against this Ravens secondary.  They won't get many chances to come up big ... These teams are evenly matched, but while the Giants defense is arguably the best in the NFC, the Ravens defense is arguably one of the best of all-time.  That's a big difference in statements worth more than 2.5 points to me.  It's hard for me to imagine this Giants offense coming up big against one of the best defenses of all-time ... In addition, this game is likely to come down to which team makes the "big mistake."  The Ravens will run the same game plan they've run all year with defense and ball control.  The Giants, on the other hand, know they won't be able to run with success, so they will rely on Kerry Collins to throw the ball.  Which of those two game plans is most likely to result in a "big mistake"?  My money is on the Ravens in this game.

Baltimore +6
over @Oakland
WIN, Bal 16 - Oak 3
Pre-Game Commentary: The Raiders will NOT be able to run against the Ravens, leaving it up to Rich Gannon to win this game for Oakland.  Gannon is a mobile quarterback, and the Ravens defense has been playing teams with mobile quarterbacks all year (Steve McNair, Kordell Stewart, Mark Brunell), so this will be nothing new for them.  If the Raiders offensive line does not have a good day, they lose, no question ... Despite Trent Dilfers lack of numbers, his numbers are small but not poor.  He hasn't made a lot of big mistakes with his passes which is why he and the Ravens are where they are this Sunday ... Another factor is that the Raiders thrived on Nepolian Kauffman's huge play-making abilities.  Kauffman will be out for this Sunday with a knee injury.  The Raiders have gone largely with a committee of running backs, but Kauffman was head of that committee, putting even more pressure on Rich Gannon to be a one-man show ... Yet another factor - one that no one seems to be mentioning for some reason - is that the Raiders are noteably poor against teams that throw a lot to their Tight Ends.  The Raiders safeties are not good in coverage.  Look for Shannon Sharpe to be a larger part of this game - even larger than he normally is ... So far, the Ravens are the only team that has won on the road in the 2000 Play-offs, beating Tennessee in a very hostile environment.  There is a lot of talk about how scary it is to play in Oakland, but it's hard to believe that the Ravens game against rival Tennessee last week was much easier.  Clearly the Ravens can handle that sort of thing based on last week's success.  I'm not sure home field advantage is as much of a factor in this game as others do ... Jamal Lewis has run for 991 yards and 8 TDs in his last 9 games (including the play-offs.)

New Orleans +8.5 over @Minnesota
LOSS, Min 34 - NO 16
Pre-Game Commentary: Everyone seems to be writing off this Saints team mostly due to their injuries, but that win over the Rams clearly should have made everyone a believer.  Well, at least, enough to realize that 8.5 points is a LOT for a team with a stellar defense and a bit of momentum, going up against a team that has had to endure 3 consecutive losses to end the season and then sit for two weeks ... The Saints also have a good road record - in fact they have won SIX consecutive games on the road, so there may not be as much home field advantage as one might think ... Top this off with the fact that Daunte Culpepper will be playing with an ankle injury that some feel would sideline him if this were a regular season game.  Culpepper's ability to scramble is what has made him stand out from the rest of the field and he may not be able to do that with his bum ankle ... Again, that spread is large for my tastes and the fact that there are experts who believe the Saints can win and should keep this game close makes that 8.5 look huge to me ... Key stat:  The Vikings have 17 turnovers in their last 9 games resulting in a 5-4 record to end 2000, while the Saints have forced 33 turnovers in their 11 wins ... Too many things point to the Saints in this game - this is clearly the lock of the week.

Miami +9 over @Oakland
LOSS, Oak 27 - Mia 0
Pre-Game Commentary: There are a number of things that make this game a good match-up for Oakland, but the 9 points in a divisional play-off game seems like way more than a lot to me considering I don't think Miami's talent level is that far off from Oakland's ... Hopefully Lamar Smith is rested from his marathon last week because he'll be asked to do it again ... The Raiders main weapon has been the run straight up the gut, but that isn't going to work against this Miami defense. Oakland will have to rely on Rich Gannon to make things happen for them, so they may be forced into being a bit more one-dimension that normal ... The fact of this game is the Miami defense is dominant, which makes that 9 points look even larger.  Their D has been so dominant that, although Oakland should win this game, there's no reason to think that it won't be closer than a touchdown, making this a no-brainer to go with Miami +9. 

Philadelphia +4.5 over @NY Giants
LOSS, NYG 20 - Phi 10
Pre-Game Commentary: A lot has happened in the development of BOTH of these teams since the last time they met, so temper the significance of the fact New York won both games this year.  Another stat that has been used far more than it is worth is the Eagles 8 game losing streak against the Giants - anyone who remembers the Eagles teams of the three years prior to this one should be able to vouch for the fact that Giants wins against the Eagles in 1997-98-99 really have little relevance to what will happen this Sunday ... The Eagles defense is much improved since the last time these teams met.  The Eagles defense was viewed as excellent but somewhat prone to giving up rushing yards to teams with good running games.  The Giants, for example, ran up 291 yards combined against the Eagles in their two games.  Since then, the Eagles have surrended only 78 yards per game against the run ... Additionally, Donovan McNabb really had two of his poorest games against the Giants.  People like to believe that certain teams "have a player's number", but reality all this means is that McNabb is due for a good game against the Giants ... Another key issue is the broken arm of Tiki Barber.  Barber admitted mid-week that after team doctors determined his arm was broken, they actually discussed surgery to stabilize it which would have knocked him out of the remainder of the play-offs.  The man who was clearly most destructive to the Eagles plans to play with a broken arm!  I know it's primarily his legs that brings him his paycheck, but it's hard for me to imagine how this won't hinder his performance at least a little bit, possibly make him prone to fumbling if he takes a hit the wrong way ... These two teams are pretty much equal in my eyes, and in that case, I'll take the team getting points.

@New Orleans +6 over St.Louis
WIN, NO 31 - StL 28
Pre-Game Commentary: Did something happen between last week and this week?  Why would the spread go from -3.5 before these two teams played last week, to -6 before they play this week just because St.Louis won 26-21?  I'm not sure I understand that at all ... The key to last week's Saints loss was the poor play of Aaron Brooks, easily his worst game of his short career.  You'd have to think he'll rebound a bit which should be worth enough for New Orleans to cover the spread if not win outright ... The normally sound Saints defense also missed a lot of tackles last week which you'd think isn't likely to happen again either ... Sticking with last week's logic, the Saints have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so, once again, St.Louis shouldn't score 35 points, and against a very weak defensive Rams team the Saints should be able to put enough points on the board to keep this game very close ... Throw in Kurt Warner coming off a concussion in last week's game and you have yourself the recipe for this week's Home-Underdog Upset Special.

@Miami +1.5 over Indianapolis
WIN, Mia 23 - Ind 17
Pre-Game Commentary: This Miami defensive unit ranks as one of their best ever - they have four players bound for the Pro-Bowl, they lead the NFL in interceptions and they had the #1 and #2 sack leaders in the AFC in Trace Armstrong and Jason Taylor ... The real key to the Colts' recent success has been their improved defense.  That will have to continue as the Dolphins will pound the ball with Lamar Smith.  If they aren't able to stop the Dolphins running attack, this game swings easily in the Dolphins favor ... Indy beat Miami 20-13 on December 17th, but that was with an injured Jay Fiedler. Fiedler appears to have his health back if the second half of last week's game is any indication ... Gotta love the home underdog!

@Philadelphia +3 over Tampa Bay
WIN, Phi 21 - TB 3
Pre-Game Commentary: 4 games this week, 3 home underdogs - cool ... Most of the experts seem to be torn on this game, so it looks pretty clear that you take the team getting points in this game.  Both teams have stellar defenses so the score in this game should be quite small - which makes that +3 look even bigger ... As we've all heard, TB has yet to win a game in temperatures under 40 degrees.  They are 0-19 and should soon be 0-20.  There are a lot of "experts" like Joe Theismann who are calling the stat a "myth" and saying that, if anything, the Bucs are due to win a cold-weather game.  Apparently Mr.Theismann didn't take any high school Statistics classes.  0-19 is a trend if I ever saw one, and just because they lost 19 in a row doesn't make it any more likely that they win the 20th.  (Same as if you flip a coin 19 times and get tails 19 times, it doesn't make it any more likely that you flip heads on the 20th try.) ... The Eagles defense is based on aggressiveness towards the QB and speed.  The Eagles' usual swarming of the quarterback should negate any rhythm that Shawn King had coming into this game turning the Bucs back into their usual one-dimensional give-the-ball-to-Warrick Dunn offense.  The Eagles' speed on defense is more suited to defending a back like Dunn than they are some of the other power backs in the NFL ... Philly is a tough place to play no matter what the temperature ... Yep, another home underdog.  Book it.

@Washington -7 over Arizona
WIN, Was 20 - Ari 3
Pre-Game Commentary: The Redskins are playing as if they don't care, but this is ridiculous.  The Cardinals are just plain bad, so bad that I really find it hard to believe the Skins don't win this one by two touchdowns are more - despite their lack of interest.  At some point a sense of pride has to kick in at least a little bit.  Plus, Jeff George - who sucks, by the way (not big news, I know) - won't be playing.  Brad Johnson will get his last chance to impress the other 30 teams in the league for his services next year ... Proof of the Cards ineptitude: Jake Plummer has thrown 42 interceptions in his last 25 games, the Cards are -34 in take-away differential in their last 31 games, the Cardinals have allowed 170+ - yes, that's 170! - yards rushing in their last 3 games and 130 or more in their last 7 games.  Yuck.

@New Orleans +3.5 over St.Louis
LOSS, StL 26 - NO 21
Pre-Game Commentary: Very odd that last year I took St.Louis to win against the spread SIX times (and was 5-1) and this year so far I've taken them to LOSE against the spread SIX times (presently 3-2) ... The Rams embarrassing defense had one of its worse performances of the year last week against the Bucs, indicating that they aren't really coming around like everyone thought they were.  The Saints defense has still been shutting people down and I wouldn't except the Rams to score another 35 points this week.  Warner has 17 INTs this year already which should make the Saints "D" salivate.

Pittsburgh -3 over @San Diego
WIN, Pit 34 - SD 21
Pre-Game Commentary: This is a game the Steelers should win easily.  They are playing with confidence, they have momentum and they have to win this game to make it into the play-offs.  At this point in the season, the Chargers have to be looking to just get this game over with.  The Steelers defense is so superior to this Chargers offense - San Diego will have trouble putting points on the board.  The Steelers will do what they usually do - pound the ball with Jerome Bettis and they should easily succeed by more than a measly field goal over SD ... Icing-on-the-cake stats: The Chargers have committed 2 or more turn-overs in an amazing SIXTEEN straight games; Kordell Stewart has thrown for SEVEN TDs and ran for another FOUR in his last 5 games. 

Kansas City -4 over @Atlanta
LOSS, Atl 29 - KC 13
Pre-Game Commentary: Kansas City beat Denver last week, so they've proven that they haven't rolled over and died just because they have been eliminated from the play-off hunt.  If they can beat Denver, they surely ought to be able to beat a woeful Atlanta team by more than four ... Atlanta is now grooming rookie QB Doug Johnson which shouldn't make life any easier for the Falcons who traditionally have had a shot at winning ONLY when Chris Chandler has been behind center.  Then again, could it get any worse?  The Falcons have scored 14 or fewer points in an amazing SEVEN straight games.  So, that means 19 points for KC should make this game a lock - yep, this should be an easy one. 

@Tampa Bay +1 over St.Louis
WIN, TB 38 - StL 35
Pre-Game Commentary: Wow, have the Monday night match-ups been stellar this year or what.  This is quite a (near) finale!  A classic match-up: Potent offense vs. potent defense (and, of course, mediocre offense vs. mediocre defense.)  That usually means the defense prevails, particularly in this case where the - outside of last week, of course - the Rams offense has sputtered a bit.  And also, as John Clayton of ESPN notes, the Rams tend to thrive in high scoring games and it's going to be very difficult for them to run up the points against the Bucs defense.  The Buccaneers are better than any team at limiting the deep ball that has made the Rams fun to watch.  And, of course, it's been noted too many times that the Rams aren't as good on grass ... Warrick Dunn has been on fire as of late, rushing for 375 yards and 4 TDs in the last 3 games ... TB has won 3 straight and FOUR straight at home ... If the Bucs can keep this a low scoring game, there's no reason that they can't win this game outright.  It's been a rough season in Tampa Bay, but I still believe they have a good chance at making it all the way to the Super Bowl.

@Pittsburgh +1 over Washington
WIN, Pit 24 - Was 3
Pre-Game Commentary: Although the 'Skins are not mathematically eliminated, it's hard to envision them doing anything but going through the motions in this game.  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will be playing their last home game in 3-Rivers Stadium so you would think they would want to go out with a win as their last memory ... Regardless of the stadium issue, the 'Skins are just toasted. They are playing like a team without a clue and if they couldn't handle a poor Cowboys team, how are they going to handle Pittsburgh? ... With the Redskins wearing down, look for The Bus to get a lot of mileage.  The woeful Redskins have now allowed 140+ yards rushing in 3 consecutive games.  A successful running game will open up the passing to what should be an outright victory for the Steelers ... On the flip side, the Redskins key ingredient, Stephen Davis, has been shut down of late - with the Redskins rushing for less than 100 yards in 3 straight games.  Not a good stat to take into a game against this Steelers defense.

Oakland -6 over @Seattle
LOSS, Sea 27 - Oak 24
Pre-Game Commentary: This will be a tough game for the Seahawks.  They really don't match up well against this Oakland team.  (I know, not many teams do, but this is worse than it would appear.)  The Raiders defense has handled all of the West-Coast Offense teams very well this year.  With no real receiving threat to speak of, the Seahawks will have trouble putting points on the board, and they will need to in order to win this game.

Minnesota +3.5 over @St.Louis
LOSS, StL 40 - Min 29
Pre-Game Commentary: Both teams have a lot to play for.  Minnesota has home-field advantage to play for here - yes, the Vikes only need one more win to do it, but you know they are hungry to lock it up right now ... The Vikings O-Line is HUGE, a major mismatch for the Rams small D-Line.  The Rams have lost 4 of their last 5 and probably couldn't stop the run even if my 155 pound frame was trying to poke through that line.  The Vikings don't have me as their running back, they have the leading rusher in the NFL in Robert Smith (1391 yards, 100+ yards rushing and at least one TD in each of the last 5 games!) - not good for our Rams ... Kurt Warner was horrendous last week in just his first game back from a broken digit - he needs a big turn around to revert to something even respectable ... Both teams have the ability to score, obviously.  I just don't see that St.Louis is at all equipped to stop it enough to justify being favored in this game.

New Orleans +3 over @San Francisco
WIN, NO 31 - SF 27
Pre-Game Commentary: The Saints have a LOT to play for in this game.  All they have to do is win ONE of the next two and they will be in a showdown with St.Louis for the division title in the last week of the season ... The 49ers have improved their defense to a degree, but mostly on their defensive line.  Their secondary remains clearly weak ... The Saints are terribly beat up, but this Saints team is still dominant on defense.  The 49ers offense will not be able to exploit this D like they have other teams ... If the Aaron Brooks and the Saints can put points on the board, there isn't any reason they should lose this game.

Detroit +3.5 over @Green Bay
LOSS, GB 26 - Det 13
Pre-Game Commentary: Like the Saints, Detroit has some serious injury problems, particularly in their defensive secondary - not a spot you want to be weak against Brett Favre.  Fortunately for Detroit, Green Bay is still lacking in offensive weapons beyond Favre, and provided Detroit can establish a running game and eat up time on the clock - thereby keeping the ball out of Favre's hands - they should be able to win this game.  Look for a lot of James Stewart.  As far as I'm concerned, this is a "pick-'em" game at best, so I'll take the team getting points.

@Carolina +8 over St.Louis
WIN, Car 16 - StL 3
Pre-Game Commentary: Don't overlook Carolina's offense just because of their record.  And against this St.Louis defense, it would not surprise me if Carolina winds up putting a LOT of points on the board.  St.Louis will have to keep up, and if Kurt Warner is at all rusty coming back from his broken finger injury, I can actually see the Rams finding a way to lose this game ... The Rams have been struggling big time lately committing 15 turn-overs and allowing 25 sacks in their last 6 games! ... The Rams have allowed 2 or more TD passes in 9 of their 12 games this year! (Not exactly a stat Rams fans will want to hear against a QB with ability like Steve Beuerlein.) ... The Rams should win this one (just like they should have won the game against the Saints last week), but I think there are too many factors in the Panthers favor which should keep it within 8 points.

Miami +3.5 over @Buffalo
WIN, Mia 33 - Buf 6
Pre-Game Commentary: The Dolphins get Lamar Smith back this week and probably Jay Fiedler.  The Bills will be without FOUR starters on defense lost in the last 2 games including leading tackler, Linebacker Sam Cowalt for 5 weeks with an ankle injury, linebacker Sam Rogers and cornerback Antoine Winfield ... The Bills still have no running game to speak of, so the Dolphins 9th ranked defense can load up on stopping Rob Johnson ... This game should really be a toss-up between two teams that probably are looking at this game as a "must-win", which means the spread should not be 3.5 points.

@Philadelphia +4 over Tennessee
WIN, Ten 15 - Phi 13
Pre-Game Commentary: Steve McNair (thumb) and Carl Pickens (hamstring) are both questionable for Sunday's game ... It's been said that the Eagles lack a running game, they lake a game-breaking receiver and that they are weak against the run.  But they are still 9-4 and have all the momentum in the world going for them this week.  They may not rank at the top in talent just yet, but this is a team that seems to be doing all of the extra things that push teams over the edge to consistent victory.  I still believe Tennessee is one of the top 4 teams in the league, but I have a hunch this game is going to be very close to going either way.  That being said, I'll take the team getting points.

@New Orleans +13.5 over St.Louis
WIN, NO 31 - StL 24
Pre-Game Commentary: I think most people will overlook this game, thinking it is now a complete mismatch with Ricky Williams and Jeff Blake being out for the year, but let's not forget that the Saints have, arguably, the best defense in the NFL, St.Louis hasn't done the best job in protecting their quarterbacks and they are mildly sputtering (2 losses in the 3 games since Warner's injury.)  This will prove to be an interesting game - at least when the Rams have the ball ... When the Saints have the ball, this game will be a matter of how Aaron Brooks handles being thrown into the fire.  The Rams defense, although they have been better lately (relatively anyway), are not the best the league, so it may be an opportunity for the Saints offense to put some points on the board despite being banged up considerably at key positions.  In an effort to keep the game close, the Saints will try to establish a running game to eat up as much clock time as possible - another reason this game may be closer than meets the eye ... I certainly don't think the Rams should lose this game by any stretch, but I do think the Saints and their defense are fully capable of keeping the game within 13.5 points.

@Oakland -11 over Atlanta
WIN, Oak 41 - Atl 14
Pre-Game Commentary: To date, the Raiders have proven that they aren't prone to let-downs against easy opponents (e.g. wins against Seattle, San Francisco, Cleveland and two against the Chargers) ... The Falcons O-line has been terrible, seemingly hurting both their running attack and the passing game, resulting in a surprisingly anemic offense.  They have been held to less than 100 total yards rushing in 10 of 12 games, and 14 or fewer points in FOUR STRAIGHT GAMES ... The Raiders will focus their excellent running attack against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th against the run ... The Falcons average game has been a loss by 9.5 points, and the average Raiders game has been a win by 8.2.  The Raiders are certainly much better than average, and the Falcons sure do seem worse than average, so I see no reason why that 9.5 and 8.2 won't be pushed to 11+ for this game.

Pittsburgh -4 over @Cincinnati
WIN, Pit 48 - Cin 28
Pre-Game Commentary: To have any chance at making the play-offs this year, the Steelers must win this game.  Classic case of having your back against the wall.  The only thing that would negate that is if, in the back of their minds, they already feel they've lost their chance regardless of a win against the Bungels ... Obviously, both teams will focus on stopping the run, Jerome Bettis and Corey Dillon.  The two big edges for the Steelers are the fact that they do have an exceptional and aggressive defense that will be formidable for the Bungals, and that The Bus has traditionally had very very good games against Cincinnati (e.g. in 10 career games he has scored 7 TDs and averaged 103 yards rushing per game.) ... Despite the last 3 consecutive heartbreak games the Steelers have played, they are clearly more than 4 points better than this Bungels team.

@Philadelphia -7 over Arizona
WIN, Phi 34 - Ari 9
Pre-Game Commentary: Philadelphia has all the momentum in the world going for them right now, and St.Louis definitely does not.  Arizona won 16-15 over Washington two weeks ago only because of a Stephen Davis fumble going in for a score which the Cards picked up and returned 104 yards for a touchdown.  Take out that very lucky win and the Cardinals have been blown out of the water 4 consecutive games: 33-14, 48-7, 21-10, 31-14.  To make matters worse, the Cardinals are REALLY banged up - their #1 receiver David Boston and #1 back Michael Pittman are both questionable for Sunday.  The Cardinals have lost 7 straight road games dating back to last year - and the Vet is NOT an easy place to play for anyone.  The Cards have turned the ball over 2 or more times in 8 straight games, and are an atrocious -28 in take-aways in their last 26 games.  The Eagles have won 4 of their last 5 and are only a 1/2 game out of 1st.  Add it all up, and Philly is simply a much better football team right now.

@Pittsburgh -3 over Jacksonville
LOSS, Jax 34 - Pit 24
Pre-Game Commentary: If you go with the odds over a period of games, alone, you have to like Pittsburgh in this game.  The Steelers have lost two heartbreakers in a row.  They need this game to stay in the play-off hunt.

@Miami -3.5 over New York Jets
LOSS, NYJ 20 - Mia 3
Pre-Game Commentary: OK, the 4th Quarter heroics thing was fun for a while, but now you have to look at it as a serious flaw.  The Jets will have to turn it on for more than just the 4th quarter to stand a chance in this game.  A replay of the "Midnight Miracle" just ain't gonna happen again.  Miami should take this game fairly easily.  The Dolphins new found ability to run the ball has taken pressure off of Fiedler and made the entire offense better.  The Dolphins have won all three games since "The Miracle", and the Jets have lost all three.  Suddenly they look like teams going in opposite directions.  The Dolphins are undefeated at home (5-0) - it's just tough to beat them there.  The Dolphins have to be considered one of the top 3 teams in the NFL right now, and have some serious pay-back issues to deal with in this game.

Miami -4.5 over San Diego
WIN, Mia 17 - SD 7
Pre-Game Commentary: The Dolphins continue to roll, seemingly unaffected by their 4th quarter collapse against the Jets three weeks ago; while the Chargers will change quarterbacks yet again (Moses Moreno this time).  The Dolphins have held opposing QBs to a 61.2 QB-rating - that shouldn't be in jeopardy of changing much this Sunday.  The Miami defense leads the AFC in sacks and is 2nd in INTs - all of this does not bode well for the Chargers putting many points on the board ... Everyone has been knocking the Miami offense but they are averaging 28.2 points in their last 5 games ... The Chargers have turned the ball over 2 or more times in TEN straight games. Yick.

@New York Giants +2 over St. Louis
LOSS, StL 38 - NYG 24
Pre-Game Commentary: This seems like an upset special to me.  The Giants defense continues to play tough (have held opponents to 14 or fewer in each of last 4 games), the Rams will be without Marshall Faulk, their game became too 1-dimensional last week against the Panthers and it cost them the game, and the Rams are not nearly as quick on grass fields.  Cornerback Jason Sehorn returns this week which improves their defense which has been consistently good in his absence.

Kansas City -3.5 over @San Francisco
LOSS, SF 21 - KC 7
Pre-Game Commentary: Elvis Grbac passed for 500 yards against Oakland last week - what will he do against a San Francisco defense that is way to young to withstand any sort of quarterback prowess?  The 'Niners defense is surrendering an astounding 32+ points per game!  The knock on KC last week was that they relied too much on the pass and they wound up losing by 18 points to the Raiders.  Against this 49ers secondary (young, playing poorly AND playing hurt), being too 1-dimensional shouldn't matter.

@Philadelphia -3 over Dallas
PUSH, Phi 16 - Dal 13
Pre-Game Commentary: This would seem to be a case of short-term memory line placement.  Yes, the Eagles turned in a miserable performance last week, but that doesn't erase the fact that they had won 4 of their previous 5 and with a little luck against Green Bay (6-3 loss) and Washington (17-14 loss) could have been 7-1 going into last week.  Furthermore, lets not forget the 41-14 drubbing on the Cowboys in Week #1.  Dallas is giving up a league worst 170.5 yards per back, and at the same time they are tied for last in sacking the opposing quarterback with only 10 (that's two fewer than Hugh Douglas has all by himself.)  All that taken into account, 3 points does not seem like enough to me.

@New York Jets -3 over Denver
LOSS, Den 30 - NYJ 23
Pre-Game Commentary: Remember what the Broncos did last time they played?  278 yards to Corey Dillon?!?! One has to think Curtis Martin is drooling over that prospect, already averaging over 80 yards per game.  Vinny Testaverde has always thrived against the Broncos, a 93.3 QB rating in his last two games against them.  Let's also not forget the possibility of Griese's mind being a little off after his DUI arrest this week.

Washington -10 over @Arizona
LOSS, Ari 16 - Was 15
Pre-Game Commentary: Inter-division game, yes, but it's hard to imagine that being a factor considering the Cardinals know they are toast at this point.  Inter-division games don't really mean a whole lot more than other games when you're 2-6.  The 'Skins have destroyed the Cardinals in their last few meetings, including 393 yards in their 2 meetings last year (including 280 yards from Stephen Davis.)  It's hard to imagine this year being any different considering the Redskins are actually better and the Cardinals even worse.  The Cards have a new coach, but that won't mask the fact that it's the same bad team.  Stephen Davis will be way too much for them to stop, and it won't really matter if it's Jeff George or Brian Johnson behind center.  The Cardinals have also turned the ball over 2 or more times in 6 straight games and have been limited to 14 or less points in 3 straight - if they do that against the Redskins they will have ZERO chance at all.

New York Jets +4 over @Buffalo
WIN, Buf 23 - NYJ 20
Pre-Game Commentary: The Jets are rank in the 5 in every Power Ranking you can find.  They are 6-1 and coming off of an emotional win.  Normally, you can look for a let down after a game like that, but it's hard to imagine that the Jets could possibly take a game in Buffalo against a division rival lightly.  Despite the Jets good play so far, going into Buffalo is tough despite the Bills record (3-4), and Doug Floutie tends to flourish in games just like this one.  I think this will be a close game, but you have to give some edge to the team that is overall superior and that's the Jets.  That said, giving them 4 points seems like a lot considering they have a good chance at winning this game outright.

@Miami -4.5 over Green Bay
WIN, Mia 28 - GB 20
Pre-Game Commentary: It's hard for me to imagine the Packers have any chance against (1) a team that will be foaming at the mouth to redeem itself after that painful loss to the Jets last week, (2) a defense that is far superior to the Green Bay offense, and (3) a Miami offense that is finally starting to click.  Fidler looked good last week against the Jets and the Dolphins have been running the ball very well for 3 weeks.  The Packers, as I've said many times, are mediocre at best.  Favre is less than 100% and no longer has the weapons around him that he used to have.  What few weapons the Packers do have are also banged up from week to week.  This game should be Miami -10 or more.  Jump on it.

Oakland -6.5 over @San Diego
LOSS, Oak 15 - SD 13
Pre-Game Commentary: There's not a whole lot to be said about this game.  San Deigo wasn't that good last year, but they weren't terrible.  Oakland wasn't that great, but they were above average.  My, my, how these two teams continue to go in opposite directions.  Jim Hairball will start for San Diego - that certainly can't be good.  The only thing that would keep this game close is complacency on Oakland's part.  But looking beyond that, there is absolutely no reason for this game to be within a touchdown.  Rich Gannon is on a roll (2 or more TD passes in 3 straight games), as is Running-back Tyrone Wheatley (1 or more TDs in 4 straight games).  The Raiders have scored 30+ in 4 of the last 6 weeks.  The Chargers, on the other hand, are NOT on a roll:  2 or more turnovers in EIGHT straight games, and have scored more than 12 points in only 3 out of 7 weeks. Yuck.

Denver -9.5 over @Cincinnati
LOSS, Cin 31 - Den 21
Pre-Game Commentary: The only reason to believe Cincinnati has any shot at winning this game is the old "no one goes 0-and-16 anymore" thing that everyone throws around.  I don't see why this would be the game that they win.  Same for Denver this week as it was for Pittsburgh last week - even if Denver scores only 10 points they still have a good shot at beating the spread.  Cincinnati's offense is embarrassing.  If Pittsburgh can beat an 8 point spread against the Bungels last week, Denver can do 9-1/2.  The Broncos seem to be clicking in just about every way coming into this week: Griese has been efficient, Mike Anderson is running well, and the defense has given up only 36 points the last 3 weeks combined.

New England +8.5 over @Indianapolis
WIN, Ind 30 - NE 23
Pre-Game Commentary: I expect this to be a much closer game than the Las Vegas odds-makers do.  Straight up, I'd pick the Colts to win this, but 8.5 points seems like a lot.  Despite the well-publicized unbalanced Patriots attack, they are still a formidable team despite their record.  In Bledsoe's last nine games versus the Colts he is 8-1.  Both teams have given up a lot of points this year.

@Philadelphia -6.5 over Chicago
LOSS, Phi 13 - NYJ 9
Pre-Game Commentary: Chicago is STILL a team in disarray - just as I said last week.  McNown is playing as if he is a rookie under severe pressure to start performing (which he is), and McNabb is turning more and more into the complete opposite, taking a small step forward each week.  Going into the season both of these teams looked to be at about the same point.  Struggles have pushed each team in opposite directions and at the moment Philly just looks at least a touchdown better than Chicago to me.  The Eagles have turned into a pass-to-set-up-the-run team (which started long before Duce got hurt) as McNabb has matured.  The Bears have now given up 2 or more touchdown passes in FOUR straight games which doesn't bode well for their chances this week.

Minnesota -6 over @Chicago
WIN, Min 28 - Chi 16
Pre-Game Commentary: Dante vs. Cade, two 1999 first round draft picks.  Chicago screwed me last time I said this, but I'll say it again, Chicago is improved but they are still a team in a bit of disarray - McNown really has no one around him to help.  Minnesota is due to lose a game, and Chicago is better than their 1-5 record, but still, undefeated teams with talent like the Vikings should not be favored by less than a touchdown against teams like the Bears.  Playing on the road has not been a problem for the Vikes in Chicago before - they've won their last 4 in Chicago and 7 of their last 8 there.  The Bears meanwhile have given up 2 or more TD passes in 3 straight games - not a good sign against a team that loves to heave it up in the air and often.

@Pittsburgh -8 over Cincinnati
WIN, Pit 15 - Cin 0
Pre-Game Commentary: Cincinnati is another team due to win eventually, and Pittsburgh is a bad team, but the Bungels are even worse...much worse.  Pittsburgh has scored 20 or more each of the last four weeks, Cincinnati has yet to score more than 16 in any of their last SEVEN games!  Yick.  Look for the bus to get a lot of mileage - the Bengals have given up 150 or more rushing yards 3 straight weeks.  (But, why, oh why, is Kent Graham starting this game?)

@New York Giants -4 over Dallas
WIN, NYG 19 - Cin 14
Pre-Game Commentary: The Giants are struggling but this seems like a good match-up for them.  The Cowboys must run to win and will find rushing yards hard to come by.  The Dallas secondary is weak, and although Kerry Collins isn't a future hall-of-famer, he can get the ball downfield when necessary.  Unless Jim Fassel is an idiot, he has to have finally figured out that he has to do something other than relying so much on the run to win - that clearly isn't working anymore.  This is a good game for the Giants to come out passing, and Dallas is a good team to have that be successful.

@New York Jets -8 over Pittsburgh
LOSS, Pit 3 - NYJ 20
Pre-Game Commentary: Testaverde has yet to have a really good game.  His QB rating is only 64.  It can't possibly stay that low, and is somewhat of an indication that despite being 4-0, the Jets haven't totally played up to their potential.  As for the Steelers I still don't see how a team expects to win consistently with Kent Graham as its quarterback.  Making matters worse, he's a banged up Kent Graham.  Kordell actually took them to victory last week - I can't quite figure out why you would give the ball back to Graham.  It's hard for me to see the Steelers keeping this one within single-digits.

Baltimore +2.5 over @Jacksonville
WIN, Bal 15 - Jax 10
Pre-Game Commentary: I'm not sure that I care how about Baltimore's offensive inconsistency when their defense has posted three shut outs in five weeks.  Of course, the only other time they gave up a lot of points was against Jacksonville in Week #2, but still.  As far as Jacksonville goes, it's still early but there are a lot of signs that they might not be as good as many people thought there were going to be - a leaky defense, a mediocre running game, a poor offensive line and a lot of injuries.  I like Baltimore to win this game outright.

Cleveland +4.5 over @Arizona
LOSS, Ari 29 - Cle 21
Pre-Game Commentary: Arizona has only 14 sacks in their last 11 games, and haven't intercepted a pass since Week #2.  That could be all that Tim Couch needs to take another step forward in become a good quarterback in the NFL.  The Browns should be able to keep this one close, and have a good shot at winning.  Any game with that description should not have a 4-1/2 point spread.

Tampa Bay +2 over @Washington
LOSS, Was 20 - TB 17
Pre-Game Commentary: Rarely do you see a line that is totally baffling. Someone once told me to stay away from all games that don't make any sense, but I can't help myslef.  Tampa Bay has been dominant, and has much as I was glad to see Keyshawn Johnson eat his words last week, the Bucs dominated that game.  If it wasn't for a gimmick play the Bucs win.  This is a dominant team fully capable of going to the Super Bowl.  The Redskins, although not as bad as they appeared at times this season should not be favored - even at home - against any team that stands a good chance of going to the Super Bowl.

Miami -7 over @Cincinnati
WIN, Mia 31 - Cin 16
Pre-Game Commentary: OK, rarely do you see a line totally baffling, but there are two in this week alone.  Explain THIS one to me.  Miami has given up only 22 points all year, Cincinnati has scored only 7 points all year and has yielded - yikes - 74 points!  The past doesn't always determine the future, but c'mon.  If Miami doesn't win by more than 7 they should be embarassed.

Minnesota +1 over @Detroit
WIN, Min 31 - Det 24
Pre-Game Commentary: I still like this Detroit team and they should squeak into the play-offs, but Minnesota is clearly more dominant.  Even in Detroit, Minnesota should have little trouble winning this game unless Culpepper decides to use Week #5 to display some inevitable growing pains.  Rany Moss only has 12 catches thru 3 games.  That will change!

@Green Bay -5 over Chicago
LOSS, Chi 27 - GB 24
Pre-Game Commentary: Yes, that's right...FOUR games this week.  Usually I have trouble picking three stand-out games, but not this week.  I know I said earlier in the year that it was doubtful I would be picking Green Bay to beat the spread until they've proved that they are no better than a mediocre team to the odds-makers, but this game doesn't seem quite right to me.  Chicago is a team in disarray, clearly not as improved as everyone thought they'd be, and after an 0-4 start the calls for a QB change are being whispered around the windy city.  Is Green Bay really mediocre?  Maybe, maybe not, but Chicago is more than 5.5 points worse than mediocre.

@New York Giants -1 over Washington
LOSS, Was 16 - NYG 6
Pre-Game Commentary: This line indicates that the odds-makers still believe the Redskins are a better team than the Giants. I'm not sure I agree with that anymore. A poor '99 defense is only mildly improved, and an excellent '99 offense is sputtering big-time in 2000 and has spawned a QB controversy in just 3 weeks.  The 'Skins are in a death spiral, and it's probably not over this week.  (Just as a point of interest for you Redskins fans, after NYG this week, the 'Skins have Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Jacksonville in 3 of the following 4 weeks!  Yikes...it could get real ugly in D.C.)

Philadelphia +1.5 over @New Orleans
WIN, Phi 21 - NO 7
Pre-Game Commentary: The games against the Giants and the Packers sure were humbling for an Eagles fan (if that's possible).  However, despite their struggles, this is still a young team with talent.  Young teams with talent tend be erratic just as the Eagles have been.  This should be a close game, but the Eagles shouldn't lose this one.

Cleveland +10.5 over @Oakland
LOSS, Oak 36 - Cle 10
Pre-Game Commentary: I smell upset here, but I don't have the guts to call it outright.  Oakland should win this game, but - jeesh! - 10-1/2 points?!  Cleveland has proven that they can actually win (a vast improvement over 1999), and Oakland still would seem to have a propensity to (1) lose games they should win, and (2) play in close games.  All of that points to Cleveland beating the spread.

New York Giants +2.5 over @Chicago
WIN, NYG 14 - Chi 7
Pre-Game Commentary: Can someone explain this line to me?  The Giants have displayed dominance for two consecutive weeks...OK, OK, they played very well against a bad Cardinals team and dominated a young Eagles team.  There's still no one picking them to go to the Super Bow, but still.  This game frightens me, but only because I don't understand how a 2-0 team that has proved it has legitimate weapons can be an underdog against an 0-2 team that just lost 41-0.  I like the Bears to upset a number of teams this year, but I don't know why this would be the week they do it.

@Jacksonville -13 over Cincinnati
PUSH, Jax 13 - Cin 0
Pre-Game Commentary: Jacksonville coming off of a loss - look for a rebound.  Cincinnati coming off of a loss to...puke...the Browns - look for the Bengals to continue to be bad. 

New Orleans +6 over @Seattle
LOSS, Sea 20 - NO 10
Pre-Game Commentary: Don't be fooled by last week's score against the Chargers.  New Orleans absolutely dominated that game.  And don't be fooled by the score against Detroit in Week #1 either.  If Detroit doesn't return a kick-off for a TD, New Orleans is 2-0 right now.  Is New Orleans great?  No, and they might lose this game, but it won't be by more than 6.

@Detroit +6.5 over Washington
WIN, Det 15 - Was 10
Pre-Game Commentary: As pathetic as the Lions looked in their win over the hapless New Orleans Saints, I still think they are a decent team.  They are also at home, and I have a feeling the 'Skins are somewhat overhyped.  Call me crazy but I think Detroit even has an outside shot at winning this game outright.  If Charlie Batch doesn't start this game I am changing this pick, but as of Wednesday he was taking most of the snaps with the first team.
   

@Philadelphia -3 over New York Giants
LOSS, NYG 33 - Phi 18
Pre-Game Commentary: I've never been so excited about football as I am this year.  Let's hope I'm not getting totally caught up in the Philly hype.  I've read just about every printed word about this team, and watched every footage of film this preseason. This is a good football team, and those who know me well know that I've said that even before last week. The Giants are a good litmus test, but I think the Eagles will continue to roll for at least this week.  If they can beat the Cowgirls by 27 on the road, they can beat the Giants by more than just 3 at home.
   

@Buffalo -6 over Green Bay
WIN, Buf 27 - GB 18
Pre-Game Commentary: Last year poor Brett Favre didn't have much of a cast around him. This year the Packers may not even have a healthy Brett Favre.  I believe that until the Packers unveil their inevitable poor start, all of their spreads will be a little out of whack just due to the number of people who still wrongfully consider them a decent team.  The Bills are home for the second week in a row.  Buffalo should be able to take this one by at least 7.
   

Detroit +1.5 over @New Orleans
WIN, Det 14 - NO 10
Pre-Game Commentary: I like the additions (and subtractions) that New Orleans has made, but they are still a young developing team, and a team with a new coach and a new system.  Charlie Batch probably won't play this game, but I still like Detroit to win this one.
   

Jacksonville -10 over @Cleveland
WIN, Jax 27 - Cle 7
Pre-Game Commentary: Fred Taylor is out for this game, but I don't care. Cleveland is still bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.  Picking up right where they left off last year. If played mid-year, the spread for this one would be closer to -14.